Expected CTR is Google Ads’ estimate of how likely your ad is to be clicked when it appears for a particular keyword. It is one of the three parts of Quality Score and is shown as Above average, Average or Below average, measured against other advertisers whose ads appeared for the same keyword.
How expected CTR works
Google starts from how often your ads have been clicked on that keyword in the past, then corrects for things that would make a straight comparison unfair: the position the ad appeared in, the assets shown with it and the format it was served in. The idea is to rate the keyword and ad on their own appeal, not on how high you happened to bid that week.
The rating also assumes the search exactly matches your keyword. A phrase or broad match keyword that picks up loosely related searches is still judged on how its ads would perform for its own wording, which is why the label can look better or worse than the click-through rate you see in the main columns.
You find it at keyword level by adding the “Exp. CTR” column in the keywords view, next to Quality Score, ad relevance and landing page experience. Historical versions of each column show how the rating has moved over time. Keywords without enough recent searches show a dash instead of a rating.
The label is a summary for you to diagnose with. The calculation Google uses inside each auction to work out Ad Rank happens in real time and uses more signals, such as the device and the time of the search.
Why it matters
Predicted click-through is part of how Google decides which ads show and in what order. An ad that people are more likely to click can win a similar position for less money. A Below average rating on a keyword you depend on usually means a competitor with a sharper ad is getting cheaper clicks or showing more often than you.
In crowded UK auctions, such as emergency trades in London or conveyancing searches, that difference can decide whether an account pays for itself. The rating is also a useful early warning. A drop often follows a competitor changing their offer, or your ad copy drifting away from the words people actually type.
Common mistakes
- Chasing the label instead of the business result. A keyword with Below average expected CTR that brings in profitable enquiries is still worth keeping.
- Writing curiosity-bait headlines to lift clicks. You pay for every click, and people who were never going to buy cost money and give Smart Bidding the wrong signals.
- Putting many unrelated keywords into one ad group, so a single set of ads has to answer searches it cannot match.
- Reacting to a rating based on a few hundred impressions, or to a change that appeared last week.
- Looking only at the label and never at actual click-through rate by search term, which usually shows exactly which searches drag it down.
How to act on it
Start with the keywords that spend the most and carry a Below average rating. For each one, open the search terms report and the ads that served. Check whether the headlines reflect what people searched for and give them a concrete reason to choose you, such as a starting price, a delivery time, the areas you cover or a qualification you genuinely hold.
Then look at the structure. Split ad groups where one set of ads is trying to cover several different needs, add relevant assets such as sitelinks and callouts, and pin a headline only when the keyword genuinely has to appear in a fixed spot. Give each change several weeks of data before judging it. If the rating stays low but the keyword converts at a cost you are happy with, leave it alone. I review expected CTR as part of Google search ads management, always next to cost per enquiry rather than in isolation.