Pipeline value is the total value of all open sales opportunities that have not yet been won or lost. Weighted pipeline value adjusts each opportunity by the probability that it will close, which gives a more realistic view of the revenue likely to follow.
How pipeline value works
Every opportunity in your CRM has an estimated value and a stage, such as qualified, proposal sent or negotiating. Unweighted pipeline is simply the sum of those values. Weighted pipeline multiplies each value by the probability attached to its stage and adds up the results.
Take an IT support company in Reading with three open opportunities, valued on first-year fees excluding VAT:
| Opportunity | Value | Stage | Probability | Weighted value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solicitors’ office | £12,000 | Qualified | 20% | £2,400 |
| Manufacturing firm | £30,000 | Proposal sent | 50% | £15,000 |
| Accountancy practice | £8,000 | Negotiating | 80% | £6,400 |
Unweighted pipeline is £50,000 and weighted pipeline is £23,800. The probabilities in this example are illustrative; yours should come from your own history. Of the deals that reached proposal stage last year, what share did you win?
Pipeline is a snapshot, so the trend matters as much as the total. A pipeline that sits at £200,000 for six months may be full of the same stalled deals, while a smaller one that turns over quickly is often healthier. Tracking how much new pipeline is created each month, and how much leaves through wins and losses, tells you far more than a single figure.
Marketing usually contributes by generating marketing qualified leads that sales then turns into opportunities. Many B2B teams report marketing-sourced pipeline, the value of opportunities that began with a marketing lead, as their main measure of output.
Why it matters
In businesses with long sales cycles, such as B2B services, construction and professional firms, a lead and the resulting revenue can be months apart. Pipeline value bridges that gap: it shows whether this quarter’s marketing is creating enough future revenue long before anything is invoiced. It is also a fairer way to judge campaigns than lead counts, since five large opportunities can outweigh fifty small enquiries.
It helps with forecasting too. If you typically win a third of your opportunities by value and need £150,000 of new business next quarter, you need roughly £450,000 of qualified pipeline in play, timed to suit your sales cycle length.
Common mistakes
- Leaving dead deals open, so the pipeline looks healthier than it is.
- Using optimistic, made-up stage probabilities instead of your own win rates.
- Mixing monthly and one-off values, so a £2,000 monthly retainer sits beside a £2,000 project as if they were worth the same.
- Crediting marketing with pipeline it did not source, or ignoring its influence on deals that sales originated.
- Judging campaigns on pipeline created without checking how much of it is eventually won.
How to act on it
Agree clear stage definitions with sales, and record a value and an expected close date for every opportunity. Close or remove anything that has not moved within an agreed period. Calculate your stage probabilities from the last year of deals and recalculate them every few months, alongside your overall win rate.
Make sure every opportunity records its original source, so you can see which channels and campaigns create valuable pipeline rather than just leads. Feeding pipeline stages back into ad platforms lets their bidding favour higher-value enquiries, which is part of the performance marketing work I do for businesses with longer sales cycles.